The War Beneath Our Feet: Ukraine, Soil, and the Battle for the Future

Why there is more at stake with Ukraine than most people realize

In the grand game of geopolitics, where oil pipelines, military alliances, and economic sanctions dominate the headlines, there’s a story we rarely hear about. A story not about weapons or warships, but about something far older, far more powerful. Beneath the modern battlefields of Ukraine lies one of the most valuable and ancient resources in human history. It is a resource so vital that almost every empire has risen and fallen because of it. Today, the fight in Ukraine is for control over this very substance.

We call it simply, “soil.”

The Secret Beneath the Surface

Two decades ago, a young graduate student—let’s call her Millie—uncovered something remarkable. A gifted soil scientist, Millie had an ability to read topographical maps the way others might read a novel, deciphering layers of history and potential hidden beneath the ground. Her research led her to an unexpected meeting at her university, one that would change her understanding of global power forever.

In a dimly lit conference room, surrounded by foundation staff, professors and men in impeccably tailored suits, Millie was handed maps and soil data—documents so old they traced back to the First World War. The data revealed something extraordinary: Ukraine’s soil wasn’t just fertile; it was some of the richest and deepest on Earth. A motherlode of life-sustaining minerals, capable of feeding not just millions, but perhaps hundreds of millions of people.

There was a group of men in that room with long silvery beards wearing expensive diamond rings. They were of Russian descent and they knew exactly what they were looking at. They knew that control over this land was about far more than farming—it was about the future of global power.

They invited Millie to continue her research in Russia and Ukraine. There was talk of a private jet, handsome research budgets, a staff and more. It was a graduate student’s dream. But Millie declined. She sensed something deeper, something dangerous. And she was right.

Why Ukraine’s Soil Matters

For centuries, Ukraine has been known as the “Breadbasket of Europe.” But that phrase hardly does justice to what the land represents. It’s not just about wheat fields stretching to the horizon—it’s about an agricultural powerhouse that has been systematically fought over, occupied, and reclaimed by empires that understood its value.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and invaded in 2022, the world’s attention focused on military strategy, political alliances, and human suffering. But beneath the surface, another battle was being fought—the battle for soil.

Russia, despite its vast territory, has a problem: most of its land is unsuitable for large-scale farming. The Siberian tundra covers almost 50% of Russia’s landmass. And here’s the terrifying part—by mid-century, due to climate change, much of that tundra will no longer be frozen. While that might sound like a good thing for agriculture, it’s not. The melting permafrost will unleash carbon and methane stores that have been trapped for thousands of years, accelerating climate change and making vast regions of the country unstable for farming.

What’s more, the tundra is home to another resource for Russia – namely its oil infrastructure. Each calorie of food in today’s modern agricultural system requires at least two calories of fossil fuel energy. If Russia loses the tundra, it loses both agricultural resources and oil resources. It’s a double bind and one that is unfortunately inevitable.

Russia knows this. And that’s why Ukraine isn’t just about politics or historical grievances—it’s about survival. If Russia loses its ability to produce food at scale, it loses its power. Hence the conflict in the Ukraine.

The New War for Resources

Most of us have been taught that wars are fought over oil, territory, or ideology. But we rarely talk about the wars fought over soil. Yet history tells us otherwise. The Roman Empire flourished because of its ability to control fertile lands around the Mediterranean. The American Dust Bowl in the 1930s devastated communities and fueled one of the largest internal migrations in U.S. history. And today, in Ukraine, a similar story is unfolding.

Modern industrial agriculture is built on a fragile foundation. Our entire food system is dependent on oil, fertilizers, and large-scale mechanization. If that system collapses—if the soil depletes, if the oil runs out, if access to food is disrupted—societies crumble.

That is why Ukraine’s soil is a resource more valuable than gold. And that is why Russia, knowing its own agricultural challenges, sees Ukraine not just as a neighboring country but as a lifeline.

What This Means for the Future

As the war drags on, America’s stance on the conflict appears to be changing. And perhaps it has nothing to do with what we’ve been told.

Perhaps it has to do with a simpler dynamic. An alliance of the world’s two superpowers, as historically unlikely as it may sound, would alter the foodscape of the globe. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fertilizer. Allowing Russia to once again export fertilizer and grain would lower world food prices, even in the United States.

It's a strange time and once in which anything is possible. But when we step back and look at the chess board of geopolitics strictly through the lens of soil, the decisions of nation states become crystal clear.

So what can we do?

• Support Regenerative Agriculture in Eastern Europe and everywhere – There is an opportunity to rebuild farmland that has been devastated by wars in a way that restores soil health rather than exploits it. Regenerative agriculture, which emphasizes no-till farming, cover cropping, and soil restoration, could make all farmland more resilient.

• Recognize Soil as a Strategic Resource – We need to start treating soil the way we treat oil or rare earth minerals—as a national security asset. If the U.S. and Europe want to ensure food security in the future, they must invest in preserving and restoring healthy soils both domestically and globally.

• Shift Away from Fossil Fuel-Dependent Agriculture – The war in Ukraine has exposed just how fragile our food system is. Oil based agriculture is a security risk. Each nation needs to move toward decentralized, soil-based, regenerative farming that doesn’t rely on massive fossil fuel inputs.

A Final Thought

Millie’s story is one of many that reveal the hidden power dynamics at play beneath our feet. While the world watches the battle on the surface, the real war is happening in the soil. The outcome of this conflict will shape not just who controls Ukraine, but who controls the future of food.

Empires are built on soil. We must understand that the foundation of our global empire is no different from those of the past.

And if we’re not careful, ours could follow the same fate.